Main Messages:

By embracing uncertainty, leaders become energized and agile, regaining their power and setting an example for their peers and peers.
Harnessing uncertainty includes: managing apprehensions, imagining the future, managing expectations, experimenting quickly, guiding choices, and collaborating frequently.
Being able to confidently move through uncertainty and respond to ambiguity with adaptability will always be a winning skill as our world is constantly changing.

Taking advantage of uncertainty means turning the threat of not knowing the future into an opportunity for greater success, becoming more energized, psychologically secure, focused and agile. Leaders able to capitalize on uncertainty are those whose teams and organizations excel when others falter. The leaders who help their teams and organizations prepare for and embrace change are those who are able to consistently meet the expectations of customers, investors, and the community. Leaders who win.

Between the constant evolution and the dimensions of changes, perceptions and reactions, it has been possible to identify roles and main leadership behaviors. In this section, the authors connect roles with behaviors and provide examples of leaders who have demonstrated these behaviors in times of great uncertainty:

imagine the future
Guide the Choices
Manage seizures
Manage Expectations
Experiment with Agility
Collaborate Frequently

You could respond to this list with the comment that none of these behaviors are unique to leadership in times of great uncertainty as good leaders must always be able to imagine the future, guide choices, manage apprehensions, etc. However, the particularities of these behaviors change in times of uncertainty. More importantly, they become not just one of many important leadership behaviors, they are prerequisites for success to a degree that is not the case in less ambiguous circumstances. In other words, weakness in these behaviors can be fatal to individual careers and the viability of the organization in times of uncertainty.

While many of the examples used to illustrate these behaviors are taken from the context of the extreme disruptions of 2020, they are useful and relevant even in more routine times. Awareness and attention to these behaviors can not only be a “cure” for extreme uncertainty, but can also be “preventive” in times of more routine change. Deliberately cultivating and strengthening these behaviors as an individual leader and in leadership development efforts improves day-to-day performance, prevents unexpected disruptions, and builds leadership “muscles” that can be more easily accessed when major disruptions arise. As such, these six leadership tips for harnessing uncertainty are not just descriptive of what happened, but prescriptive in terms of what leaders could do in uncertain future situations.

Step 1: Imagine the Future

The concept of imagining the future is not new, but it takes on added importance and complexity in times of prolonged disruption and uncertainty. When major disruptions occur suddenly (pandemics, wars, even sudden changes to historic trade agreements, etc.), things that used to be seen as unknown begin to appear as incremental changes. As the first warning signs begin to emerge, exceptional leaders react with purposeful curiosity as the first step to capitalizing on potential uncertainty. This intentional curiosity includes three phases:

Phase 1 – Information Gathering: Exceptional leaders look to experts of all stripes to begin imagining the impact the event will have in the short, medium and long term. They look for areas where there might be new opportunities, at least as much as they focus on where there are risks or dangers to the business.

Phase 2 – Scenario development: They sift and classify expert opinions and use them to develop their own point of view about what the future may hold. They include internal and external stakeholders in the process, sharing and testing various scenarios for how events might play out and how each scenario will affect their organization, as well as which scenario they consider most likely.

Step 3: Manage seizures

Individual purpose and contribution are just some of the needs employees need to meet in order to fully engage.

Trusting relationships, feeling part of a team, and a predictable, stable work experience are also important (Emmett et al., June 29, 2020). In normal times, leaders need to inspire and connect with employees. In times of extreme uncertainty, the need for this is greater and the barriers are more numerous. The leadership practice of managing seizures is aimed at managing teams’ perception of change, and potentially team reactions. While leaders may need to manage their own apprehensions and at least make preliminary efforts to manage immediate workforce concerns early in the process, the substantive work of managing apprehensions can only be done once the initial direction of the crisis is reached. .

Leaders need to take two key actions to manage seizures:

Listening and empathizing: To manage apprehension, leaders must first understand it. Given a radical new world and/or a new direction that could have adverse impacts on employees or those they work with, what are your biggest concerns. In the current pandemic it is job security, health concerns, finding a space to work, adapting to new technological needs, etc. Before a leader can manage seizure, he must understand it.

Respond practically and positively: Once leaders understand the concerns, they need to provide practical solutions and communicate them in a positive and hopeful way (while being realistic).

Several examples of the current world situation stand out. Marvin Ellison, Lowe’s CEO, understands the concerns of essential frontline workers in a way that many CEOs do not. As a former retail security guard who has worked across multiple retail chains, he has maintained a close relationship with the needs of associates and customers. That empathy has translated into more than $750,000,000 in special bonuses for frontline workers, additional paid sick leave for high-risk associates, and free medical advice for any associate. Lowe’s is among hundreds of companies, large and small, that have made significant adjustments to reduce their workers’ fears. From covering all out-of-pocket medical expenses to lowering job expectations for employees who care for sick or out-of-school family members, not committing to layoffs or salary cuts, to removing limits on the number of sick days, from installing barriers to makeshift protections to limited retail hours, leaders around the world have understood and responded to a wide variety of fears to support employees, protect their health and maintain as much engagement as possible (Gallucci & Seetharaman, April 13, 2020). Some companies, such as American Airlines (carrying medical supplies, military mail and packages instead of passengers) and Ford (producing ventilators, face shields and disposable respirators instead of cars and trucks) (Rock, 2021). In Germany, McDonalds partnered with Aldi to temporarily “rent” employees so they could continue working and earning wages (Neerman, March 20, 2020).

Another example of listening and responding positively and realistically comes from the US Black Lives Matter movement, also in 2020. While many companies’ responses were seen as mere words, Levi’s Straus & Co. President and CEO Chip Bergh , was one of the few leaders who listened, empathized, and took meaningful, positive action. He spoke clearly and directly about the pain employees and customers have experienced because of continuing inequality, made substantive contributions to groups leading cultural change, and published (for the first time in the company’s 167-year history) the diversity statistics of Levi’s and a plan to correct them (Beheshti, June 18, 2020).

Step 4: Manage Expectations

While managing apprehensions is key to taking advantage of uncertainty, it must be combined with managing expectations. There are harsh realities of limited resources and unknown futures that cannot be ruled out. Great leaders are clear about the limits of what they can influence, and they remind people of truths they don’t want to acknowledge. They deliberately work to combat the instinctive urge others may have to opt for only the most realistic scenarios by sharing objective data for a range of scenarios. They remind people of the uncertainty of the future even as they chart a clear path forward and project optimism that collectively the organization can transcend the challenges it is facing. Because they share both bad and good news openly, they build trust with both internal and external stakeholders. The leadership practice of managing expectations takes into account the facts of any changes and then moves its focus to how those changes are perceived. Managing apprehensions includes a leader’s ability to shift perceptions of a change from a threat to an opportunity, and then engage the team to end it.

Several examples of the current pandemic stand out. On an individual level, managers everywhere are having to manage their teams’ expectations on a regular basis. A hospitality industry leader looking to fill a vacancy speaks very candidly about the current state of the business and short-term prospects so candidates arrive with a clear understanding of what to expect, while sharing their passion for the company and the reasons you believe the company will survive and grow in the long term. Another leader at a consulting firm regularly shares revenue projections, updates on government grants, and the point at which layoffs will have to happen, while also highlighting the pivots the company is making to adapt.

Managing the expectations of external stakeholders is equally important. One company that overcame this challenge well was Airbnb. Starting the year by losing half a company’s market value is not the typical path to an IPO (initial public offering), but Airbnb has just completed a highly successful IPO. . Founder and CEO Brian Chesky inspired confidence by managing expectations and being clear about the uncertainties ahead. His track record of overcoming obstacles as varied as accusations of racism, escalating regulations and safety concerns in a straightforward and transparent manner — including a personal apology to the hosts this spring — contributed to his ability to successfully IPO. Most observers credit a combination of quick action and the ability to tell a compelling story to the investment community about how their recovery is different from others in the industry and how the pandemic really accelerates their vision of a future where people “live anywhere”. (Griffith, December 10, 2020).

Step 5: Experiment with Agility

Continuous reinvention is key to any company’s long-term viability, but during periods of extreme uncertainty, the ability to experiment nimbly — and sometimes radically — can be the key to survival. Extreme uncertainty, as in the current pandemic, may require changes in business models, service delivery and working conditions. Furthermore, it has brought about a plethora of changes in the way we eat, shop, heal, celebrate, learn, mourn, admire and socialize, which offers both risks and opportunities for individuals and organizations. The leadership practice of experimenting with agility focuses on managing, directing, and motivating the team’s reactions to (perceptions of) change. It should incorporate an understanding of the team’s emotional reactions, which can leave the team in an action or freeze mode, to foster an environment where experimentation is the norm and mistakes are actually accepted and accepted as needed to overcome uncertainty.

Uncertain scenarios often give rise to incredible innovation of ideas and solutions, as suddenly the risks of not experimenting outweigh the risks of experimentation. Great leaders are predisposed to be involved in experiments and know how to encourage and guide others to experiment. They encourage their teams to experiment by trying things they’ve never tried before. They encourage others to explore new ways of approaching old (or new) problems. They celebrate what works and learn from what doesn’t. They put existing resources to new uses.

The results of these experiments, along with additional data as the situation progresses, feed back into scenario planning and direction setting, sometimes changing the organization’s direction by phases or themes.

Several examples of the current pandemic stand out. The old adage “necessity is the mother of invention” has certainly manifested itself in the arts as artists around the world have begun to radically experiment with ways to make events available. What began in many cases as free concerts designed to keep in touch with their audience or honor first responders, has evolved into a wide variety of virtual experiences: concerts, dance parties, lectures, live streams, pay-per-view, virtual classes, virtual meetings etc. Evening comedy presenters engaged their families in producing their nightly shows. Artists switched media or posted work to online galleries. The movies went straight to Netflix. Museums produced virtual tours. Groups gathered on Zoom to practice and perform together. But the arts survived and were important sources of solace for many.

In India, with the world’s second-largest population, the government’s Telecommunications Department reached out to telecom operators for support in delivering messages. In early March 2020, with less than 50 confirmed cases in India, the government asked telecom operators to play a 30-second message on how to stop the spread of the virus instead of ringing the normal phone. As the pandemic unfolded, the message was updated and proved to be a simple and powerful way to disseminate health information in a country where even the 26% of the country’s illiterate population mainly has a phone in their pocket (Pandey, 16 Dec. June 2020).

The key to any experimentation is the learning that follows. In Taiwan, the government led by President Tsai Ing-wen is widely seen as leading one of the best government responses in the world. A number of factors contribute to this response, but chief among them are the lessons learned during the SARS outbreak in 2003. Lessons learned from experiencing a similar pandemic resulted in early and aggressive monitoring of the outbreak in neighboring Wuhan, followed by and aggressive isolation of contacts that contained the virus and that helped the country avoid the large-scale lockdowns that so many other nations have experienced. It also anticipated other disruptions, monitoring commodity demand and ensuring adequate availability of medical-grade masks. These actions resulted in Taiwan being the only country in the world to post positive economic growth in 2020 (Everington, December 4, 2020).

Step 6: Collaborate Often

In a radically new situation, the more partners you have, the more information and alternatives you can explore. Exceptional leaders have broad and deep networks that they use regularly. In times of radical uncertainty, they rely more on these networks to learn and adapt. They learn from and with others, testing ideas, coming together to solve common problems and sharing learnings. They invite your advice and your ideas. They are open to joint solutions. The practice of collaborative leadership often addresses the team’s reactions to (perceptions of) change, and insists on keeping fearful emotional reactions at bay, and actively and constructively engaging in – even if unproven and potentially frightening – new ways of working together. together with stakeholders.

Several examples of the current pandemic stand out:

For the hotel industry, Covid-19 has been devastating. Given the sudden and full impact on travel as the world closed in early 2020, Hyatt executives had to take immediate action to ensure liquidity. Leaves bought time for a strategic approach to downsizing. At the same time, they began to prepare on ways to restore trust and security for both the workforce and guests. Conversations with doctors, other travel industry leaders and even architects about how to safely resume operations have allowed hotels to gradually reopen in various parts of the world.

They helped leaders from these adjacent industries learn from each other’s experiments and prepare for emerging developments such as rapid testing, permitted air travel corridors between countries, and plan together to safely resume conferences and other travel as soon as possible. .

Perhaps the most lauded collaboration of the current pandemic has been in healthcare, as doctors and scientists around the world have come together in unprecedented ways to accelerate vaccine development and share treatment learnings as quickly and widely as possible. From major pharmaceutical companies partnering with startups and governments to accelerate vaccine development, to doctors sharing lessons learned on blogs and informal networks, to virtual reality videos demonstrating treatments, the global medical and scientific community has collaborated in unprecedented ways to try “flatten the curve”.

Change is – and probably always has been – an inevitable part of the human experience. And we can be increasingly aware of the fact that this is so. Our contexts, including those in which we act as leaders, are increasingly difficult to predict, as are the consequences for ourselves, our teams and our organizations.

As leaders develop the skills that allow them to imagine the future, guide choices, manage apprehensions, manage expectations, experiment with agility, and collaborate frequently, they will be able to channel the pressures of change to create positive outcomes for their teams and organizations. Even more importantly, organizations capable of creating routines and processes that encourage, develop and enable these behaviors in their leaders will meet the needs and expectations of customers and investors.

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